Nevertheless, specialists consulted by El Economista considered that for the rest of the 2023 the regional gap would increase due to nearshoring, who is preferring areas closer to the United States.
According to seasonally adjusted data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi), Tabasco registered the largest increase in its Quarterly Indicator of State Economic Activity (ITAEE) between the close of 2019, pre-pandemic, and the first three months of 2023, with a rate of 24.3 percent.
That is to say, It was the state that obtained the largest increase in its economy after the ravages of the health crisis caused by Covid-19, largely supported by the effect on the construction industry of the Dos Bocas refinery (in the last three and a half years, this sector contributed two thirds of formal employment).
Oaxaca was behind Tabasco with an increase of 12.6% of your ITAEE in the reference period, benefited by the Interoceanic Corridor and the receipt of remittances that boost consumption; Baja California con 9.4%, helped by its industrial vocation and proximity to the United States; and Quintana Roo with 7.8%, supported by the Mayan Train and hotel investments.
The increases in the economies of Querétaro also stand out (7.6%), Chihuahua (6.7%) and Chiapas (6.7%); the latter has the highest growth rates in remittances.
About, the coordinator of Foreign Trade and Labor Market at the Mexican Institute of Competitiveness (imco), Ana Gutierrez, explained that these results are due to the comparison base and how the pandemic affected the southern region more.
"Because of the pandemic, the southern region had a significant drop in its economic activity, had relatively greater decreases in some periods in relation to the north. That's where the difference begins, we start from a different basis of comparison, but the pending is if it is maintained ", said.
For the economic analyst Kristobal Meléndez, this rebound effect, it even happens at a macro level, Specifically, it happens with the most developed countries with respect to the ones that are furthest behind..
“With them, it is possible to see that the economic growth rates are higher. For example, many times we have seen that developing countries present growth rates similar to those of the United States, but this almost always happens after steep drops. This type of growth does not mean that the economic policy of the lagging country is on the right track., commented.
Noting that the growth is due in part to the base of comparison, the academic from the Tecnológico de Monterrey, Hector Magana, indicated that one of the points to review is the economic fall that the south of the country presented in the pandemic, "That's what's worrying., the condition of vulnerability of the economic activity that was reached”.
“Being the region that had the biggest drop during the pandemic, presenting a moderate advance would translate into a more significant growth”, deepened.
Long-term
The president of the Association of Economists of Aguascalientes, Dafne Viramontes, He added that it is too early to indicate that regional projects such as the Dos Bocas refinery or the Mayan Train are already having an impact., "if there are signs with the construction sector, but it will be in the long term when the real benefits are seen”.
“You have to add the Interoceanic Corridor. Quite significant growth can be achieved if the necessary momentum is generated, They can be ways that contribute to more and more southern entities having greater economic dynamism”, considered.
Kristobal Meléndez indicated that even the growth that the south of the country has presented is not enough to reduce the social gap, "This is something that happens with a rebound effect that does not benefit".
The factors that are driving economic growth in the South, asserted Dafne Viramontes, are different from those that are driving economic activity in the north, region where the relocation of supply companies is having an impact, highlighting investments like Tesla.
"In this sense, the dynamics of the northern region will surely move away from that of the south for the following quarters", anticipated Kristobal Meléndez, without failing to add that attention should be paid to what happens in the United States, since the probability of a recession in the United States may affect the region.
no recovery
to the other end, of the 32 entities of the country, 10 They have not yet reached the pre-pandemic level in their economic activity, highlighting Mexico City, Veracruz, Puebla, Campeche, Coahuila and Michoacan.
“Entities like Veracruz that have a project like the Transisthmic Corridor, o Puebla with its automotive vocation, as well as Michoacán with the logistics commitment have not been able to grow, It is because no investments have been attracted, specifically, It is necessary to review the plans focused on investments and why the current projects are not being attractive”, Hector Magaña delved into.
“You have to see that some states are going through temporary situations. For example, the case of Puebla, the case of Aguascalientes, with structural problems due to the supply chains of the industries”, exposed Dafne Viramontes.
Fountain: The Economist